How many games would Chicago State need to win to make the NCAA Tournament?

Good morning, and thanks for spending part of your day with Extra Points.

Quick housekeeping note:

I will be in Boise, Idaho next Friday and Saturday, and plan to catch the Wyoming/Boise game. If you’re in town, I’d love to say hello! Working on a newsletter story or two about the Broncos.

I will also be in Pullman, Washington on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday AM. I am going to try and squeeze in a quick visit to Idaho during those days as well. I’m going to guest lecture in at least one Washington State class but have a pretty flexible schedule otherwise if anybody wants me to come by and visit. My only other hard and vast obligation, besides hopefully chatting with some folks in WSU athletics, is to buy an embarrassing amount of canned cheese.

My email is Matt @ Extrapointsmb dot com if you’d like to link up while I am visiting the Pacific Northwest. If you have questions that could only be answered by me visiting and talking to folks at Boise State, Idaho, and Washington State, I’d love to know those too.

But those are newsletters for next week. Today, I’d like to focus on a story a little closer to home…or at least, my home. Let’s talk Chicago State basketball.

Last week, my old colleague and Friend of the Newsletter Rodger Sherman noted college basketball’s most unique schedule for this season…that of the independent Chicago State Cougars:

Chicago State is the only D-I program competing as a basketball independent. That’s not by choice…but the Cougars left the WAC in 2022 and are still searching for a conference home. While the school figures out if it can launch an FCS football program and continues negotiations with a few different leagues, its basketball team needs to cobble together a schedule and hope for the best.

Competing as an independent used to be much more common in college basketball, but nowadays, it’s a designation left for schools that are reclassifying or in the middle of conference transitions. Many independent basketball programs opted to join leagues once the NCAA allowed conferences to send more than one team to the NCAA Tournament. By the 1980s, only a handful of major programs, like Notre Dame, DePaul, Dayton, and Miami.

I think the last Independent team to make the NCAA Tournament was DePaul in 1990-1991. The Blue Demons went 20-9 and earned a #9 seed, and then lost in the first round.

A handful of teams have completed strong seasons as independent programs, but none of them qualified for the Tournament. Here’s how a few of them did:

• The 1991-1992 UMKC Roos went 21-7, beat Baylor and Texas A&M, and only lost to a Cincinnati team that won 29 games by five points. But overall, they played a sub 200 strength of schedule and lost to bad Jackson State and Western Illinois teams. They did not play in any postseason events.

• The 1992-1993 UW-Milwaukee Panthers went 23-4, beat Wisconsin on the road, and didn’t make the Tournament.

• The 1996-1997 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles went 21-7, beat a top 25 Arkansas team, beat a 21-win Montana squad on the road, and beat a Valpo team that won the Mid-Con and did not make the NCAAs. They did, however, make the NIT, losing to Notre Dame in the first round.

• Texas-Rio Grande Valley went 20-10 in 2001-2002 and beat Baylor, but also played ten non-D-I teams. They, unsurprisingly, didn’t make the Tournament.

• Texas A&M Corpus Christi won 20 games in back-to-back seasons (2004-2005 and 2005-2006). They beat a TCU squad that won 21 games, an Old Dominion team that went 28-6, and a few struggling power conference teams, but also feasted on reclassifying and non-D-I programs. Neither squad played in the postseason.

• Utah Valley went 22-7 in 2006-2007. They beat a 20-win North Dakota State team, a competent Albany squad, and absolutely nobody else worth a darn.

So that’s sort of the baseline here. Given that the bulk of Chicago State’s games will be Quad 4 games, the Cougars will likely need to win at least 23 games, and notch some quality wins, to even be in the conversation.

On paper, technically, Chicago State should have enough opportunities to win enough big games to qualify

The bulk of Chicago State’s schedule comes from fellow stragglers near the bottom of D-I…teams like Cal State Northridge, Northern Colorado, Bethune Cookman, and Stetson (twice). The Cougars also play programs in the process of finalizing their reclassification to D-I, like St. Thomas and Southern Indiana, as well as three non-D-I opponents (East West, St. Xavier, and Indiana Northwest). Those…are not going to help the ol’ NET rating.

But there are some opportunities for big wins. Chicago State also travels to Wisconsin, Northwestern, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. The Cougars also have a late season bout with Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago, A-10 teams that KenPom projects to win at least 20 games.

Now…let’s be clear about something. Chicago State is not favored to win anywhere near enough games to actually be in the postseason conversation

Recently, Chicago State was near the absolute bottom of D-I basketball. That’s not the case anymore! Last year’s team won 11 games and was pretty competitive against several MAC, Horizon, and OVC opponents. They were a bad team, yes, but they weren’t a meme by any means.

This year, KenPom projects a 10-19 record, ranking the Cougars at 325 in the country. Again, that is bad, but it isn’t horrific. Seeing as Chicago State routinely finished below 340 over the last seven years…starting at 325 is progress.

But what if they catch absolute magic in a bottle? What if they go undefeated?

I understand Rodger’s skepticism here, but based on statistical projects, an undefeated Chicago State is EASILY in the NCAA field. One prognosticator, Barttorvik, would have the Cougars as a ONE seed if they went 29-0. If they went 28-1, only losing their road game at Wisconsin (their top projected opponent), the system projects them as a three-seed, still with a 99% chance of making the NCAA field.

Let’s say they lose to their three top opponents (at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, and at Kansas State). Somewhat surprisingly, at 26-3, Barttorvik lists Chicago State as a probable nine seed, with an 89% of making the NCAAs. But at 25-4, (adding a loss at Duquense), the Cougars drop out of the field, with only a 26% chance of making the NCAAs.

Just for fun, what if Chicago State beats some of these elite teams, but then loses a dumb game or two, as nearly everybody does? At 26-3, with a win over Northwestern but a loss against say, Southern Illinois (ranked 166), the Cougars would be a seven seed. Most combinations I could come up with at 26-3 had Chicago State in the field, but with four losses, it was difficult to come up with a system where the Cougars had above a 50% tournament shot.

So that’s my answer. I think Chicago State needs at least 26 wins to feel good about making the NCAA Tournament, and probably at least 23 to feel really good about the NIT.

Unlikely? Yeah, probably. But it would be pretty cool if it happened, don’t you think?

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