North Dakota State is finally going FBS. So what's next?

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I’ve been writing about college sports professionally since around 2014. For almost that long, there have been rumors that FCS powerhouse North Dakota State would eventually reclassify to FBS.

Back in November 2024, I wrote about this rumor specifically. Unquestionably, the Bison are a good enough program to hang with the FBS. But moving up is expensive. A team that moves from FCS to FBS needs to write a $5 million check to the NCAA and a check to whatever conference it joins in the FBS, plus it needs millions of dollars each year to increase the operational budget of its athletic department. From my story in 2024:

I stand by what I was told then and still believe it in 2026. I have yet to speak to any industry professional who thinks the immediate increase in guarantee games, TV money and conference distributions will offset the cost increases to pay for athlete revenue sharing, new sport sponsorship required for Title IX compliance and increased operational expenses. That isn’t why you decide to move to FBS.

But by God, North Dakota State found the money.

According to multiple national reporters, NDSU will move its football program to the Mountain West in 2026. Via ESPN:

I’m sure the exact timelines will become clearer later this week, but I started to hear that conversations between NDSU and the MWC became much more serious around the NCAA convention last month. Industry sources told me the university received substantial donor commitments to help finance the move and put the Bison in a position to be successful not just in 2026, but beyond … resources that weren’t available four or five years ago.

My best understanding now is that North Dakota State’s other sports will remain in the Summit League, and the Mountain West is not likely to add additional football playing members in the immediate future. Most folks I talk to expect current non-football MWC member UC Davis to eventually move its FCS program to the MWC, but that move isn’t imminent or finalized.

With North Dakota State, the MWC will have 10 members with football programs: Air Force, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming, UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State. The league’s more heavily resourced programs are mostly off to the Pac-12, so I can’t see any reason why North Dakota State can’t expect to be highly competitive right from the start.

I filed an open records request for the FY25 operating budget for every program in the MWC and Missouri Valley Football Conference last month, but I have not yet received the report from North Dakota State. In FY24, North Dakota State reported $30,251,922 in total athletic department operational expenses, far below the smallest Mountain West institution, San Jose State ($47,405,380).

The Bison won’t be eligible for bowl games (unless there aren’t enough eligible teams) or the College Football Playoff for two seasons, and it isn’t immediately clear if the program will be eligible to compete for the MWC title from the jump.

I’d also expect additional announcements from the university about other investment plans in the athletic department. Typically, since reclassification to FBS involves adding 20-plus athletic scholarships for men, programs add additional women’s sports. Jacksonville State, for example, added a bowling program when it moved to FBS (and then messed around and won a national title). I’d also expect some sort of announcement about potential improvements to the Fargodome at some point.

A few days ago, Yahoo reported that fellow FCS school Sacramento State had stepped up its pursuit of an FBS conference invite, including conversations with leagues that are absolutely nowhere near California.

The number I was hearing in December was that the going price for FBS conference membership for any FCS football team was going to start at around $10 million, plus an agreement to refuse league distributions for a few years. My best understanding is that the figures Sacramento State was discussing came out slightly above $10 million. I hadn’t heard anybody say $12 million, the number that North Dakota State is reportedly putting up, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened.

I even had a story about Sacramento State joining Conference USA pre-written. But my understanding as of right this second is that it has become less likely than it appeared a few weeks ago.

I’m not sure yet how seriously to take the possibility of Sacramento State football joining the MAC. A $10-ish million entrance fee plus forgoing conference distributions over the duration of the current TV deal would give each MAC institution around $1 million, depending on the exact fee and what sort of take the MAC central office were to accept. That’s a lot of money for many MAC institutions (among the lowest resourced in FBS), but it’s also not pure profit. After all, Sacramento State in the MAC would mean schools would have to fly to Sacramento, a slightly more expensive drip than a bus to Bowling Green.

I would be very surprised if the hypothetical addition of Sacramento State, or any individual institution, meaningfully changes the size and scope of the next MAC television deal, even as it opens another time zone for football broadcasts. The ability of any MAC institution to deliver any “market” simply isn’t very meaningful.

For a long time, the MAC could be held up as a rare paragon of stability in an increasingly fragmented college football world. Other leagues might realign, expand or contract in ways that made no geographic or institutional sense, but the MAC remained … a bus league of regional public schools across the Midwest. (Sure, there were occasional exceptions; I’m old enough to remember MAC institution Central Florida.)

But it’s clear that that foundation is showing cracks. Northern Illinois decided to leave for the Mountain West, throwing geography and tradition to the wind in the name of elevating its football program (and saving money on other sports). Toledo considered the same proposal, and I’m told other MAC institutions seriously modeled possible moves to the Horizon League over the past 16 months.

Plus, Ohio reportedly kicked the tires on joining the Sun Belt. Over the past year, I’ve heard other ADs express frustration with the weekday football games; the addition of UMass; the failed additions of Western Kentucky, MTSU and/or Delaware; and the idea that the league isn’t prepared to be as ambitious as it needs to be amidst a changing world.

Now, some of that could be ADs complaining just to complain. Lord knows that happens. And it’s not as if the MAC is the only league to play football games in the middle of the week or to strike out on realignment targets.

But flirting with bringing in a team from California, and one that many other conferences have passed over multiple times, in the name of short-term financial gain … is the sort of gambit that could either work out very well or blow open simmering tensions and frustrations with other members.

Is this the sort of idea you entertain when you’re committing to really changing how your league operates, or is it a desperation move for a group running out of good options?

I don’t know. Hopeuflly, I’m able to have some conversations this week to give me additional clarity.

I suspect tomorrow won’t be the only conference realignment news over the next few months, though.

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