Is tiered revenue sharing coming to every conference now? You know what? I don't know!

Good morning, and thanks for spending part of your day with Extra Points.

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In a world where some new college athletics related litigation drops just about every day, it feels particularly notable when a major case actually finds a resolution. That’s what happened earlier this week, when the ACC announced that the myriad lawsuits involving the conference, Clemson and Florida State have all been settled.

That means that all pending lawsuits in Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina are dropped, and Florida State and Clemson will remain full members of the ACC. It also means that the ACC membership has agreed to substantial changes in how conference revenue distribution and conference exit fees work.

Most conferences, both large and small, share revenue equally with all conference members, regardless of how successful any particular school is at football, or how often anyone is on TV, or who has the biggest ‘brand.’ But moving forward, the ACC will have revenue distribution bonuses tied to football and men’s basketball viewership. The penalty to leave the ACC will also significantly decrease after 2030, according to multiple reports.

In the short term, that likely means that schools like Clemson and Florida State, and potentially also North Carolina, Miami and others, will earn more money than some of their smaller conference peers, like Syracuse or Wake Forest. While schools in the Big Ten and SEC will still earn substantially more from their broadcast deals, the gap will shrink a bit more for the highest performing ACC programs.

Now, the conventional wisdom is that while this move buys a short-term peace for the ACC, it doesn’t address their more existential problems. Florida State and Clemson (and potentially others) will want conference distributions as close as possible to the market leaders in the SEC and Big Ten, and once that exit fee drops below $100 million, they’ll find a way to bounce in 2030.

Will that happen? I have no idea.

I mean, I understand the logic behind that conventional wisdom. But Florida State, or really, anybody, leaving the ACC isn’t simply a matter of being able to afford the exit fees. They also need somebody else to want them, and the math behind the Big Ten or SEC getting even bigger is complicated (no existing school wants to take a pay cut, after all).

But even setting that aside, we’re entering an era of such rapid change, including change that is being forced upon the NCAA and major colleges from outside actors, that I don’t feel confident enough in nearly anything remaining the same in 2030. Will the Big Ten or SEC still exist in 2030, or will they be replaced by an NFL-lite, or a private equity-backed Super League? I don’t know! Will political pressure or antitrust enforcement force conferences to move back to a more regional model? Will Olympic sports be governed completely beyond the scope of the NCAA? Will all of these colleges even be open in 2030?

Maybe Florida State joins the SEC in 2030. Maybe Florida State is in the Champion’s League in 2030. Maybe Canada preemptively invades us, and we’re all watching Florida State in the rebuilt Prince of Whales Conference in 2030. There’s enough uncertainty there that I wouldn’t bet my house on any outcome.

But there’s another question that’s more interesting to me in the short-term. What happens with tiered revenue sharing elsewhere?

More than a few of my colleagues openly wondered when other leagues would follow a similar model, like the good folks at Sportico or CBS.

After all, the ACC isn’t the first league to have a few schools with outsized brand power. And while it’s uncommon for schools to move to tiered systems, it has happened before. Boise State leveraged a flirtation with the AAC to earn more money than their Mountain West peers. Gonzaga used interest from other conferences to secure more from their NCAA Tournament units in the WCC. And you all remember the history of Texas, the Big 12, and the Longhorn Network.

Interestingly, one thing all of those examples have in common? The school getting the outsized payouts isn’t a member of that league anymore. Could be coincidence, could be a sign that tiered revenue sharing isn’t a long-term strategy to keep conference members with wandering eyes.

Will the Big Ten or SEC pursue a similar model? After all, if Florida State and Clemson could claim they deserved more conference revenue because they drive more conference revenue, wouldn’t Alabama have a similar claim in the SEC? Or Ohio State in the Big Ten?

Maybe! I’m open to argument if any TV people reading this have the actual data, but I suspect the Big Ten is probably about as top-heavy as the ACC. I suspect the math might be difficult in the SEC, where at least a half dozen programs could claim superpower status (Texas, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Oklahoma), with several others close behind them. Could the “Haves” claw enough money from Mississippi State and Vanderbilt to make such a dramatic political move worth it? At some point, wouldn’t it just be easier to get rid of Mississippi State entirely?

Setting a percentage of conference revenue as an incentive for athletic excellence, rather than brand excellence, might be most interesting in a league like the Big 12, where they don’t have any completely dominant athletic brands. Is that a pathway to potentially build one? Would it undermine one of the core appeals of the league, that it’s so deep and competitive?

I don’t know. Lots of I don’t knows today, I’m afraid. But it’s very much worth keeping an eye on. But if nothing else, I think everybody at ACC HQ, Florida State and Clemson has earned themselves a refreshing beverage or two this weekend. Billable hours don’t catch many losses, these days. You have to celebrate every single one.

Here’s what else we’ve been cooking this week:

• We have new updates to Athletic Director Simulator 4000, and a new contest! We’ll give prizes to the players who log the highest scores by next Wednesday. And since the game is limited to premium subscribers, we’re running a 25% off sale until next Wednesday. Details here.

• There was yet another House hearing on NIL earlier this week, and you’ll be forgiven if you thought it was just like all the earlier ones that didn’t lead to any legislation. But I really think that this time, the political winds have shifted enough to make federal legislation much more possible. I didn’t say desirable, but possible.

• I drove out to Dekalb to better understand why Northern Illinois is joining the MWC and the Horizon League. At least, I thought it was a pretty silly idea. But now? Now I think it’s actually pretty smart, even if it isn’t a strategy that everybody can try to emulate. Here’s why. 

And finally, we’ve added hundreds more documents to the Extra Points Library. Now, EPL users can browse budget data and contracts among dozens of D-II schools, along with the thousands of documents we have at all levels of D-I. From General Manager contracts to men’s soccer coach contracts, vendor deals and itemized budget data, you can find it all at the Extra Points Library. Browse the stacks and see if we have what you’re looking for today.

Thanks for reading, everybody. I’ll see you next week on the internet.